Pam Partington

Design: The Igniter of a Trend

By Pamela Partington

Imagine walking down a street where everyone seems to be wearing straight-legged jeans from the eighties. The year is 2008. When did this style become popular again? How does anything become trendy? The design of an object draws a consumer in for a better understanding of what it is and what purpose it serves. According to Malcolm Gladwell, author of The Tipping Point, a trend starts with a connector[1]. Once the connector approves the design and adds it into their life, they have a following. Age groups and nostalgia[2] also facilitate in starting and keeping a trend alive. This is how a trend can evolve naturally. By contrast, branding strategies and word of mouth marketing are examples of the engineered success of a trend. Trends are powerful aspects of social, political, and cultural change. Design is the initial step in the evolution of a trend. The true connector of a trend is the design of and behind it.

Design first and foremost is the igniter to the connector. A connector generally needs to know lots of people and have the ability to make friends easily. In The Tipping Point, Gladwell “takes 250 surnames at random from a Manhattan phone book and asks the reader to go down the list. Each time the reader sees a surname that is shared by someone they know (multiple names count) the reader gives themselves a point. The idea of the test is to illustrate roughly how social a person is.”[3] A person who is considered a connector scores high on this test. People like and know this person, and this person knows a lot of people. When this person does something they will usually have a following, which is the natural and most common way trends start. Movie stars are great examples of connectors because anything someone famous becomes an icon for that product.

Gladwell’s test was given to several age groups and the results were various. “The average score of students from an inner city college was 20.96, which shows that the average person in this class knew 21 people. He then gave the test to health educators and academics at a conference in Princeton, New Jersey. This group of people were all in their forties and fifties, the majority white with Ph. D’s and wealthy. Their average score was 39. He then gave the test to a random sample of friends and acquaintances that were mostly journalists and professionals in their late twenties and thirties. Their average score was 41. The difference in scores supports how important age is in the development of a trend.”[4] Different ages throughout society help explain why certain products are designed the way they are.

A 75 year old person is not as likely to be attracted to a brochure that has loud colors and graffiti on it, whereas a teenage would be more attracted to a design of that nature. Toyota Motor Company wanted to design a better strategy in attracting the younger consumers to buy Scions. “Toyota launched a personalization strategy developed through its in-house research operation group. This group relies on a group of trend-watching youth who communicate primarily via email and are compensated through perks such as concert admission or products. Toyota found that the younger consumers look to make a personal statement with their purchases”[5], unlike the older customers who wanted something more basic and done for them. Design is spread across the spectrum by age and who will be attracted to what product; this all seems to come down to the idea of generational gaps. The era a person grows up in has a lot to do with what they are most likely drawn to.

Nostalgia is a key factor of designing a trend, especially with the most successful trends. Fashion seems to be the lead area where this happens. Bell-bottoms[6] are a great example of a successful fashion trend that “was unintended in the 1960’s as part of the hippie counter culture.”[7] This style of pant was originally worn in the Navy. There is no information as to why the navy wore this style of pant that became a huge fashion icon of the 60’s and 70’s. The two connectors that made this item a trend were “Sonny and Cher, who were both celebrities and had their own popular TV show. As the bell- bottom started going out of style it became an inspiration to flare and boot cut jeans that became the new trend of the 1990’s and is still going strong today.”7 Does this give proof that the design of this item was successful or is it just the nostalgia for the era that keeps bringing people back to this design?

Another example of how nostalgia effects trends is the type of food we eat. Pizza and pasta or anything Italian has become very popular in the past decade. “Exotic ethnic foods and pricy fine dinning are all part of everyday cooking. Italians have a great reputation for all good things with food, and for food with supposedly plain country fare, a reputation which is intense and unshakable. The urban nostalgia for an edenic[8] rural past is the ironic underpinning behind one of the country's most treasured maxims: La cucina italiana non esiste which means there is no Italian cuisine.”[9] People seem to be enticed by this culture’s food, possibly due to nostalgia for a rural past. Nostalgia is created randomly, but seems to be recycled throughout history due to its success. Can a designer create nostalgia? Nostalgia has an influence on a consumer and a designer uses this to their advantage in designing.

Although influentials[10] seem to be the main reason a trend comes into existence, there are arguments that say otherwise. “According to Watts, a network theory scientist that recently went on sabbatical from Columbia University and now working for Yahoo has done a series of experiments to challenge the influentials theory. Watts has observed email patterns and found that highly connected people are not that significant in making something tip.”[11] Watts claims that any attempt to engineer success through influentials is almost doomed to failure. “No one person can just make something happen; it has to happen accidentally the majority of the time. Watts has altered the way companies produce trends by changing the way people think about communication.”[12] The interactions among a group of individuals can differ depending on age, location and general likes and dislikes. With these in mind a designer can research and develop a product that will target this group.

Watts has created a computer program like The Sims, “which is a virtual community of individuals that are infected with a virus or great idea, and with this he sees how fast the virus or idea spreads.”[13] Watts ended up finding that slight changes in his virtual community strengthened the epidemic. Does this mean that trends are the product of connected social alphas? The success of Watts’s experiment depends on the society as a whole. Watts’s experiment proves that it takes a society to embrace a trend. No matter how social a person is, anyone is able to start a trend if society approves.

Thompson makes another point in his article when he states that “influentials cannot tip a trend into existence. If success in a networked society is random, what’s a poor marketer to do? Is there anyway to intentionally infect people with an idea or product?”[14] Is the idea of the “insider”[15] and “outsider”[16] of society a stigma that most people are born with? The general population seems born with this need to be an insider or outsider in society.

The design of a product or even idea creates this stigma people have of being “in”. Once a society approves a design it is seen everywhere because everyone wants to be an insider. Is there such a thing as creating design for the outsider? Chances are some connector would come along and make it a trend. In every society there is a need to be accepted and within that there is a need to be original. This idea helps support the connector in that the connector is not afraid to be the outsider, but society approves of them because they are able to be an outsider. This ultimately ignites a following and brings forth a trend.

Design can aid in random products becoming trends while relying on strategy. “A great way to start a trend is by analyzing the competitive, consumer and cultural landscapes. Through those answers a company can identify the area best suited to a company's core competencies and position a brand for its best future.”[17]

Faith Popcorn is a futurist who owns a company that aids companies to develop marketing skills that will create the next “big” thing geared towards making a company successful. Faith Popcorn

Brain Reserve is best known for its prescient forecasts and future-focused approach to culture and consumer behavior. “In visioning our products to create a view of a category, industry, product or topic 10 years from today, along with client-tailored implications. Most critically, we identify opportunities for growth and watch-outs that help our clients pre-empt competitors and prepare for the future.”[18] With these things in mind a trend seems to be developed through observation. It starts with one person or thing and seems to grow.

In 2006 Faith anticipated “a wave of confusion and coping as consumers question what is right and wrong. From the Boomers’ first taste of old age to privacy's last gasp to the ethical ups and downs of modern business and government, consumers' cultural anchors have come loose. Our moral compass is spinning and we are searching for new guideposts.”[19] With this in mind, does a well designed product have anything to do with the feelings consumers are having?

As consumers struggle to come to terms with growing ambiguity and change, accepting a new design or idea becomes difficult. With expanding information and innovation in technology, marketing companies have found new ways to create and exercise control. “Two trends have cycled high in our culture: Cocooning, our desire to shelter ourselves from the harsh realities of our world; and Fantasy Adventure, our hunger for the new and unconventional. Individuals are torn between security and experimentation. They hide from their problems and embrace their hyper-enabled desires.”[20] Popcorn predicts that in the coming years we will do a heavy dose of both. This idea is already being seen in the way products are designed and commercialized, such as getting information off the internet instead of by brochure.

A trend initially starts with an attraction to a product, seeing someone else having it, or a general acceptance by society, but how else can a consumer find out about this product? “A study was done by Dave Balter and John Butman, the authors of the book Grapevine, who partnered with two academics David Godes and Dina Mayzlin in 2003 to conduct a study of word-of-mouth marketing.”[21] In this study they tested how successful word-of-mouth marketing worked within a group of individuals and which groups out of those customers were more influential. The majority of the study focused on the opinion of the loyal customers, the customers that generate the most word-of-mouth, which customers had the most influence on others.

“The study was based on a word-of-mouth campaign we ran for Rock Bottom Restaurants Inc., which is a national chain of brewery restaurants. Rock Bottom introduced the campaign by email to a few thousand members of its Mug Club loyalty program, which is a program where the customer receives a card that enables them to win prizes and get invited to special dinners.”[22] Rock Bottom did this In order to easily track customers. “They know when they come in, how often, what they order, and how much they spend. In the study the members have been invited to join up and, as a reward for their involvement, received a discounted meal and other loyalty program perks.”[23]

The high amount of customer loyalty in the Mug Club program was the reason this restaurant was chosen for the study. The customers were divided into three groups, light loyals, medium loyals, and heavy loyals. “400 Rock Bottom Mug Club members chose to participate, with the majority of customers found to be light and medium loyals, along with six hundred who were not members at all. It is surprising that there were not more of the heavy members involved.”[24] “Why wouldn’t they want to talk about the brand that they were obviously so passionate about?”[25]

The researchers of the study found two Mug Club heavy loyals whom seemed like naturals for the campaign. “One of the customers had bought 1,812 pints of beer over 476 visits and the other 1,360 pints purchased in 427 visits. They got one of the men to break down and sign on the campaign, but the other did not. This was hard to believe: “why wouldn’t he join?”[26] Word-of-mouth did not affect this customer and they did not seem to be as passionate about particating. The other customer was observed once the campaign started and reports came in and surprisingly, the heavy loyals joined the campaign, but did not contribute much. “It was found that the heavy loyal customer did not send any reports during the campaign. “With the light and medium loyals it was the exact opposite.”[27]

“One customer whom had only visited the restaurant three times and had had about seven beers while being there sent in six reports, which was more than average.”[28] A medium loyal is the best example of an outsider. A medium is attracted or introduced to something and tries to make everyone else insiders so they do not have to be alone in liking something new. This can be seen when underground bands are trying to make it big. Once this person hears them and likes them they try to become a the insider first in order to not be an outsider.

By the end of the campaign reports were assessed thoroughly to compare data between consumers. “They tracked sales and visits for each participant as well as the program as a whole. We looked at the level of word-of-mouth activity of each participant, the report activity detail, and the amount of people they communicated with in each activity. We evaluated the effectivness of their communications. Did it cause others to visit the restaurant? Was anyone motivated to join the Mug Club?”[29] After about six months Professor Godes had had results from his data. The results concluded that the campaign had been a huge success. “The first order of business was the restaurant sales data gathered six months before the campaign started, and the projections for how much revenue would normally be created by the loyalty program without the help of word-of-mouth campaign. Then those figures were compared with the actual sales data. They found that in the first three months of the campaign, the Mug Club program had an increase in trending sales of about $1.2 million above trend, the average frequency of visits increased 37 percent, the spend per visit went up 12 percent, and the number of members signing up for the Mug Club card rose 55 percent.”[30]

The program resulted in Mug Club members being more involved in their favorite place to hang out, as well as an influx of new customers brought in by old customers who wanted to share their enjoyment of the restaurant with others. The campaign ended up working successfully, but an interesting fact about it that “David Godes found was that the heavy loyals, whom were assumed to be the key contributors to the increase, ended up not being the ones whose behavior was changed by the campaign. A possible reason for this is that the heavy loyals already discussed the card with friends early in their relationship with Rock Bottom, and now have no one else to tell about the restaurant.”[31]

There is another reason that could explain the small amount of loyals results; that is, interest in the brand. “The heavy loyals might have believed they had a ‘personal brand ownership’, which means for the heavy loyal, Rock Bottom is like a second home or clubhouse to be kept secret from others. The heavy loyal could be a product narcissist. He feels that he has become an important member of an exclusive club and his name is on the ½ barrel plaque to prove it.”[32] A great point that Balter and Butman allude to in this statement is that “in society, in order for there to be insiders there must be outsiders. The more inside you get the less willing you are to open the door and invite others in. Why ruin a good thing.”[33] This gives great evidence to the reason why society has this urge to do or have certain things. No one really wants to be the outsider.

Overall the campaign showed that the heavy loyals are completely committed to the brand, product, and service, but may or may not be big talkers and generators of word-of-mouth. The medium loyals were found to be the true brand evangelists. These people tended to be the most vocal about the brand. They like to be the first to know, enjoy a great deal of conversation, and tend to be the experts that know more about the product than most people in the product company do.”[34] “The light loyals are happy to buy the brand and patronize a company, but they don’t spend their days pondering the brand. Light loyals are the customers who are most likely to generate effective word-of-mouth. This is due to the fact that they have networks that can be influenced, and are seen as believers unlike the medium loyals, whom can be overwhelming and sometimes abrasive in expressing their opinions which results in turning people away.”[35] In the end the most influential person in the word-of-mouth campaign are the light loyals. Light loyals are the connectors. In design they are the best customer to have because they will appreciate the work and become a positive icon for the product. Outsiders look to the light loyal as the connector because they make becoming an insider look easy which generates a following.

Word-of-mouth marketing is another way a trend evolves. “Word-of-mouth marketing began in the late 1990’s when brand marketers began grappling with fragmented media and sought ways to break through to the audience.”[36] The Nielson Global Survey shows that word-of-mouth is more effective than other forms of marketing due to the fact that “26,000 people found that nearly 78% of respondents trusted ‘recommendations from consumers,’ a total 15 percentage points higher than the second-most-credible source, newspapers.”[37] Does this mean that by the use of word of mouth anyone can start a trend, or does the connector still need to be the igniter of the trend?

Word-of-mouth marketing is not always the best way to reach an audience. “Negative word-of-mouth communication negatively reduces the credibility of advertising as well as brand attitudes and purpose intentions.”[38] Word-of-mouth communication is the most credible use of being able to find more information about something. “It can also harm the company if handled wrong. Many consumers find out about a product through a variety of information and lots of times that can be unfavorable to the company. Many consumers can also take the marketing strategy a different way and that skews the meaning of the product for the consumer.”[39]

Another great tool for a company to get a trend going is through guerilla marketing. A case study was done at an agency in New York called Renegade. The study was called The Street Stunt and had to do with guerilla marketing. The company that was being marketed was an internet radio company. “Renegade came up with creative briefs and timelines. Then began the execution of the promoting. In this execution Renegade wanted the radio company to have posters in the form of 45’s and really hype up the idea of sex by handing out condoms and seductive posters to reflect the type of market the company brings in. Design is the first thing on their mind as to which age group they will be attracting, once again demonstrating the fact that design is important in making anything a trend. “The results ended up with the company getting the condoms and posters into 30 stores in New, York and 12 shops in Los Angeles, but were only able to breach a paddy two outlets in San Francisco.”[40] Getting a society to buy a great idea was proven easy, but motivating society was the difficulty. This is where design can also be looked at as an important detail to marketing because if something looks enticing a customer is more motivated to buy it. This begins to connect with Watts’s idea that if society approves, a trend will be more acceptable and able to occur.

The several approaches observed in producing a trend all have one thing in common and that is society. The acceptance of society generates the existence of a trend. Society defines what a connector is and follows it, and society also defines an age and era. Without the observation of society there would be no such thing as trends. Word-of-mouth would not be possible without society to spread it. Without society design would not have a purpose. Design is what keeps our society evolving and without the judgments made by society there would be no one to influence. Creating new ideas and products ignites the outsider to want to be an insider. A well designed product becomes a trend naturally as well as engineered through the unwritten standards set by society.

Works Cited

Balter, Dave and John Butman. Grapevine. New York: New York, 2005.

“Bell-bottoms.” Wikipedia.com. 2008. 19 Feb 2008.

<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bell-bottoms>

Bethune, Brian “Was pasta the original fusion food?” Maclean’s. 121.2 ( 21 Janurary 2008): 1 March 2008 <http://0web.ebscohost.com.oasis.oregonstate.edu:80/ehost/detail?vid= 11&hid=104&sid=64c33c24-45ce-491f-bc92- 85fe597bacd4%40sessionmgr108>

“Case Study 1: The Street Stunt.” Brandweek. 48.43 (26 November 2007): 28 February 2008

<http://0web.ebscohost.com.oasis.oregonstate.edu:80/ehost/detail?vid= 8&hid=104&sid=64c33c24-45ce-491f-bc92 85fe597bacd4%40sessionmgr108>

Cuneo, Alice Z. “Attik Comes Through.” Advertising Age. 74.29 ( 21 July 2003): 28 February 2008

<http://0web.ebscohost.com.oasis.oregonstate.edu:80/ehost/detail?vid= 6&hid=104&sid=64c33c24-45ce-491f-bc92-85fe597bacd4%40sessionmgr108>

“Edenic.” Dictionary.com. 2006. 9 March 2008. <http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/edenic>

Faith Popcorn’s Brain Reserve. 2008. 16 March 2008

<http://www.faithpopcorn.com>

Gladwell, Malcolm. The Tipping Point. New York: New York, 2002.

“Igniter.” Dictionary.com. 2006. 11 March 2008. <http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/igniter>

“Influential.” Dictionary.com. 2006. 11 March 2008. < http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/influential>

“Insider.” Dictionary.com. 2006. 11 March 2008.

http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/insider

McConnell, Ryan. “Word-of-mouth worth $1 billion.” Advertising Age. 78.46 (19 November 2007): 20 February 2008 <http://0web.ebscohost.com.oasis.oregonstate.edu:80/ehost/detail?vid= 4&hid=104&sid=64c33c24-45ce-491f-bc92- 85fe597bacd4%40sessionmgr108>

“Nostalgia.” Dictionary.com. 2006. 11 March 2008. <http://dictionary.reference.com/search?r=2&q=nostalgia>

“Outsider.” Dictionary.com. 2006. 11 March 2008.

http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/outsider

Smith, Robert E, Vogt, Christine. “The Effects of Integrating Advertising and Negative Word-of-Mouth Communications on Message Processing and Response” Journal Of Consumer Psychology. 4.2 (1995): 25 February 2008.

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Thompson, Clive. “Is The Tipping Point Toast.” Fast Company Feb. 2008: 75-78, 104-105.

[1] Someone that is charismatic and respected by many.

[2] “Nostalgia”: bittersweet longing for things, persons, or situations of the past.

[6] “Bell-bottoms” were a style of pant that became wider from the knees downward.

[8] “Edenic”: any delightful region or abode; paradise.

[10] “Influential”: A person who exerts or can exert strong influence: according to influentials of the fashion industry.

[15] “Insider”: A person who has some special advantage or influence.

[16] “Outsider”: A person unconnected or unacquainted with the matter.